Author: Orit ben Tzvi

Orit is Israel Rising's regional and threat analyst. She has a degree from IDC in Middle East Diplomacy and has served both intelligence related activities for the IDF as well as advised privately for firms doing business in the region.
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Rex Tillerson, Trump’s Pick for Secretary of State Offers a Very Different Sort of Foreign Policy

Donald Trump is a completely different sort of president-elect and by looking at who he has picked for his cabinet so far, he is going to be very different sort of president.  The latest rumors that seem to be much more than rumors is that Rex Tillerson, the 64 year old CEO of Exxon Mobile will be the next US Secretary of State with John Bolton as his deputy in charge of day to day affairs. In order to understand the Trump team’s vision for America’s foreign policy it is important to understand Tillerson’s background and connections.

Here is a brief overview of Rex Tillerson:

  • He is a 64 year old native of Wichita falls, Texas
  • CEO of Exxon Mobile
  • Owns 2.5 million shares of Exxon Mobile
  • Deep Connections to Putin’s Russia through his business dealings
  • Connections to over 50 heads of state by way of Exxon
  • Against sanctions on Russia

Although the following video is NBC/MSNBC/MSM it gives a pretty good overview:

With the Tillerson pick, Trump is reformulating foreign policy by acknowledging that Russia is a world power and is here to stay. This also admits that the US as uni-polar leader is a concept never became actual reality. Trump clearly sees spheres of influence and in many ways this was the way the world was prior to World Wars One and Two. By picking a business leaders that has extensive global business experience, Trump gains connections with the global community without the baggage of Foggy Bottom.

Trump likes winners, especially in business.  If someone is successful it means they can be trusted to do a good job.  We see this in his deference to military generals to fill key defense positons or which countries he admires as we see with his rock solid support of Israel versus the Arab states.  He admires Putin, not because he is a Putin puppet, but because he sees Putin as a successful leader.  Given Trump’s view of the world as broken down into good and evil with the muslim world falling into the latter, Putin makes sense as a erstwhile ally in the West’s fight aginst radical Islam. This is not dissimilar to Roosevelt’s working relationship with Stalin in fighting Nazi Germany and let’s remember Putin is no Stalin.

Tillerson brings instant clout to Trump’s administration and a direct connection to Putin, which Trump needs if he is going to reset global politics.  Expect Europe to become very jittery over this as the EU continues to roil over the continent wide populist movement.

What About Israel?

Not much is known about Rex Tillerson’s views on Israel, but pacifying Putin in a way that he sees Iran as a problem for doing relations with the USA, will be a good thing for breaking the growing stranglehold of Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah around Israel. The fact that the rest of the Trump appointees, including Deputy Secretary of State John Bolton see the Iran deal as a major flaw, it is probable that Tillerson does as well.  Clearly the Trump administration beleives that the best way to break Iran is to give Putin a deal he can’t refuse in order for the Kremlin to cut the Ayatollahs loose.

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Hezbollah Readies its Missiles on Israel’s Border

It has been revealed by the IDF that Hezbollah has its missiles trained on Israeli villages and cities with launching pads in 200 villages on the Lebanese Israeli border.  The IDF released a previously classified map detailing the precise location  each launching pad.

With the Israeli airforce working overtime to mitigate weapons transfers between Iranian commanders in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the real question is not if there will be a war, but when.

Israeli Airforce Primary Mission is to Prevent Arms Shipments

With the flurry of air attacks on Syrian targets, one can observe how the IDF stretches the understandings with Russian leader Putin.  The only atacks he allows are ones that directed at potential arms transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The goal of these transfers is to strengthen the armanents in Southern Lebanon in preparation for al out war with Israel. Now that the Syrian army seems in control of the war efforst, Hezbollah has energy to spare to turn its sites once more on Israel.

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Rome Falls in a Night and the EU Begins to Teeter

In what should have been a fairly innocuous referendum on the nature of Italy’s government has turned the EU upside down as Italy’s voters overwhelmingly voted no to the changes to the country’s constitution that Prime Minister Matteo Renzi proposed.  Renzi did what he promised and resigned entering Italy and the larger EU into a period of political uncertainty.  With populism on the rise across the continent, political leaders like Renzi who are advocates for greater federalism are finding their political futures cut short.

What Does this Mean for the EU?

Prime Minister Renzi was the last European leader left with a road-map for the EU’s future. Angela Merkel of Germany is too busy dealing with crisis after crisis and France is heading towards elections where the National Front is taking the country by storm. With Renzi out, the EU finds itself in uncharted territory as many of the member states face unhappy citizens as a euro-skeptic wave is rising across the continent. We are entering the waning days of what historians will call the failed EU experiment, which has been none other than Germany’s attempt at controlling the continent through economic measures.  With Merkel on the ropes and increased banking instability, the EU may be headed towards a crackup.

How Will This Affect Israel?

The EU is Israel’s largest trading partner and a weakened EU can cause problems economically for Israel.  That being said, the EU’s own support for BDS by labeling “settlement” products has already forced Israel to create a more versatile set of trading partners in the east.  Partners like India, China, and Japan are rising stars in relation to Israel’s potential trade growth.  The EU might still be a large part of Israel’s export economy, but not for long.  As the EU enters the beginning stages of political and economic chaos, Israel will be ready to pivot as it has been doing during Obama’s tenure.

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A Synagogue in Kurdish Iraq? Only a Matter of Time…

The Jewish community in Iraqi Kurdistan has officially submitted a request to open a synagogue in Erbil, the region’s capital.
“Representatives from the Jewish community put forward a request to build a synagogue in the city of Erbil and although they have the right to it, the ministry is yet to agree to issue the licence,” the ministry’s spokesperson Mariwan Naqshbandi told The New Arab. “The ministry of religious affairs includes representatives from eight religious communities, including the Jewish community. Therefore, they have the right to get the licence request approved to build a synagogue.”

On Wednesday the Jewish community in Kurdistan, now numbering only 400 families, marked 71 years since tens of thousands were forcibly expelled from the region. The Kurdish Jewish community wants the Kurdistan Regional Government to recognise what happened to the Jews of the area.

Location of Erbil, Iraq Source: Google Maps
Location of Erbil, Iraq Source: Google Maps

Kurdistan Friendly to Israel 

It is a fact that no one wants to admit, at least not publicly, but for years successive Israeli governments have covertly and more recently backed Kurdish independence from Iraq.  Kurds are not Arabs and have a traditions of being descended from the Medes who were known to be friendly to the Jewish people.  In fact the Kurds and Jews should be considered to two predominantly indigenous people of the area until the Arab population colonized what is today northern Iraq.

Israel currently buys a good portion of its oil from Kurdish areas from a pipeline running through Turkey to the Mediterranean.

As ties continue to grow beyond military assistance, expect direct trade and open relations as long as the Peshmerga can keep ISIS and Turkey from its borders.

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2000 Arabs Join the Kurdish Peshmerga, Setting Back Turkish Plans for Control Over Region

In a sign of long term Kurdish leadership in Northern Iraq, 2000 Nineveh Arabs have joined the Kurdish fighting force, the Peshmerga.  Kurdish news site, Rudaw reports that it was the Arab communities themselves who asked Kurdish President Masoud Barzani to allow them to form a brigade within the Peshmerga.

“The name of this brigade will be the ‘Brigade of West Dijla Peshmerga,’ comprising of Arabs from Zemar, Rabia, Ayazya and a number of villages in Sinjar. Their duty will be to protect their areas under the command of the Ministry of Peshmerga,” Sheikh Muzaam Ahmed Al-Uwet, a spokesperson for tribal forces of Nineveh Province, told Rudaw.

Partnership is Setback for Turkish Plans Post ISIS

Turkey’s strategy behind supporting ISIS (in the beginning) was to create chaos in their immediate surroundings.  As a NATO member and strongest military in the region they would be the only ones strong enough to restore order.  Order for Turkey is putting down the growing strength of Iraqi Kurdistan at the same as claiming more lands connected to the former Ottoman Empire.

That was in the beginning.  With ISIS being now surrounded by a combined Kurdish and Iraqi army in Mosul and more and more Sunni Arabs in the area recognizing that Kurdistan is a fact, Turkey’s ability to use chaos to rule may have seen its final door shut.  With the Arabs in Northern Iraq accepting Kurdish rule instead of Turkish, Iraqi, or Iranian, the relevance of a Kurdistan that is capable of restoring order is real making Turkey’s great gambit in Northern Iraq a losing proposition.

 

 

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The UN Votes to Disconnect Jerusalem from the Jewish People…Again

Today the UN voted to disconnect the Jewish people from their ancient capital and hand it to a people that never existed.  This was not the whim of a thin majority of countries, but rather a vast overhwhelming number of UN member states voted for the resolution. Out of the UN’s 193 member states, 147 voted in favor, seven voted against and eight abstained. Those who voted against were Canada, USA, Israel, the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Naura and Palu.  Those who abstained were Australia, Guatemala, Panama, Papa New Guiea, Paraguay and Vanuatu.

The resolution states the following: “Any actions taken by Israel, the occupying Power, to impose its laws, jurisdiction and administration on the Holy City of Jerusalem are illegal and therefore null and void and have no validity whatsoever, and calls upon Israel to immediately cease all such illegal and unilateral measures.”  It then continues and pushes Israel to “respect for the historic status quo at the holy places of Jerusalem” and “urges all sides to work immediately and cooperatively to defuse tensions and halt all provocations, incitement and violence at the holy sites in the City.”

Daniel Luria, the Executive Director of Ateret Cohanim, an organization dedicated to returning property in Jerusalem stolen by Arabs back to Jewish hands dismissed the resolutions as anti-semitic. “Whoever doesn’t recognize such a clear, obvious and eternal connection and unbreakable bond between the Jewish people and Jerusalem, the Temple Mount and the ‘Kotels’  (Northern, Southern, Western and Eastern Walls of Temple Mount) is blinded by hate, a denier of both current day realities (a plethora of archeological finds) and Jewish history, and is an anti-semitic, arrogant fool. Such a person or body is destined the dung-heap of history and will be shunned or forgotten in due course.”

The UN General Assemply decision comes on the back the UNESCO vote, which disregarded the Jewish narritive to the Land of Israel.  While the UN vote is non-binding it still gives added energy to a potential UN Security Council collision course before Obama leaves office. If it gets to the security council all bets are off.  After all, if it was Jimmy Carter Palestine would have been a reality a long time ago.

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Erdogan Wants Jerusalem…and Syria Too

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president of Turkey has decided he wants Jerusalem and while he’s at it Syria belongs to him also.  Erdogan seemed to throw rapprochement with Israel out the window today when he stated “it is the common duty of all Muslims to embrace the Palestinian cause and protect Jerusalem.” He made the comments at the first Inter-Parliamentary Jerusalem Platform Symposium in Istanbul.

In the same speech Erdogan spoke about Syria:

“In my estimation, nearly 1 million people have died in Syria. These deaths are still continuing without exception for children, women and men. Where is the United Nations? What is it doing? Is it in Iraq? No. We preached patience but could not endure in the end and had to enter Syria together with the Free Syrian Army [FSA].”

“Why did we enter? We do not have an eye on Syrian soil. The issue is to provide lands to their real owners. That is to say we are there for the establishment of justice. We entered there to end the rule of the tyrant al-Assad who terrorizes with state terror. [We didn’t enter] for any other reason,” Erdogan said.

Erdogan like any other supporter of radical Islam believes in divine mandate on each muslim to conquer lands previously held by the caliphate.  For Erdogan it isn’t the caliphate, but rather the sultanate that has the divine power to institute rulership.

What is Erdogan Doing?

Erdogan is laying the groundwork for the passage of a constitutional amendment that gives him power until 2029. In order to pass the amendment  he needs the street behind him.  By showing off his radical Islamic bonafides he makes sure the street stays with him.  Furthermore he is giving context to his brutal attacks on the Kurds, both in Syria and Iraq.

For Erdogan, his broad use of terrorism is often times used to attack Kurds. For example, RT reports: “in October Turkey’s air forces killed between 160 and 200 fighters of the Kurdish YPG militia group in 26 airstrikes conducted in just one night.”

Essentially, the chaos in Syria has come to help Turkey regain a regional role in the Middle East in a way that is far more direct than it used to have. It has gained leverage against the EU and earned the respect of major powers like China.

In just a few months after Russia had Erdogan cornered and a failed coup attempt, Turkey is stronger than every and aiming to control both Northern Iraq and the Levant.

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Fire Intifada Update: 37 Arsonists Arrested, Police Stretched

Security services have now arrested 37 arson terrorists.  18 of them are Israeli Arabs and the rest live in “Palestinian” Arab controlled area of Judea and Samaria. The arrests come on the backdrop of the realization that the Shin Bet (Israel’s Undercover Intelligence Agency) was completely caught off-guard by the Arab terrorists.  The success of the fire terrorism in crippling Israel is something of an embarrassment for an agency known for its undercover prowess.

Security services are currently investigating 233 cases of arson in connection with the fires that have raged across Israel for nearly a week. Given the severity and scope of damage of the fire, most observers believe a change of attitude and approach is necessary in order to prevent what will most likely be an ongoing threat.

Arsonist Caught in Gush Etzion

In relation to the ongoing manhunt for squads of arson terrorists, the police reported on one of their successful operations:

“As part of police operations searching and finding suspects who were involved in setting off fires and causing the blazes, this morning nature observers and Parks Authority personnel spotted a suspect setting fire to bushes intending to start a larger fire. Police units immediately responded and began a pursuit in order to arrest the suspect. The suspect began to flee and police tracked him down and the 44 year old resident of the village of Hussan was arrested. Police operations are continuing to find suspects and make arrests and at the same time prevent further fires and danger to communities. International coordination and operations with airplanes is continuing. The Israel Police is calling upon all Arab authorities both Israeli and the Palestinian Authority to show responsibility in these days, to strongly condemn any attack which can endanger human lives and endanger communities regardless of religion, race and nationality.”

Below is the video of the successful apprehension of the arsonist:

The real challenge is not whether or not security forces are capable of stopping arsonists, but rather stress such continued operations places on police and army units whose focus may be needed elsewhere.

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Fire Intifada Continues as Israel is Left Vulnerable

Fire Intifada Latest Updates:

What is fast becoming one large “weapon of mass destruction” Arab arsonists continue the onslaught against Israel by lighting new fires in the last 24 hours. The village of Neve Tsuf saw its 350 families evacuated as arsonists stared three different fires which eventually destroyed 15 houses, with 25 others damaged.

Beit Meir, west of Jerusalem was torched as residents fled.  The fire was started at the entrance in order to prevent people from fleeing the area.  18 homes in the village were entirely burned and 30 others were extremely damaged during the attack on Friday night. The arsonists threw Molotov cocktails at the outer row of houses. Dozens of private cars were also destroyed.

Meanwhile, the fire by Nataf outside Jerusalem has been pushed back. The video below shows the Global uTanker from the USA at work putting out fires between Jerusalem and Nataf.

Haifa, thought to be under control is still on fire as strong winds returned Friday, whipping up flames.  Over 600 homes have ben destroyed in Haifa since the beginning of the fire.

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Arsonists Prove Israel is Vulnerable

Although the fires have begun to be controlled, the surprise and immensity of the damage proves the weapon of fire to be one of the most effective against Israel.  Israel’s security services had been caught off guard by the terrorists’ ability to organize across the Land of Israel in a manner that could only have been orchestrated by foreign plotters. The Fire Intifada has done more to smash Israel’s percieved invincibility in respect to the Arab Street and terror leaders.

The following Tweet encapsulates the renewed energy within the Arab world:

Of course Haya and other pro-“Palestinian” activists cannot answer one simple question: If the Land really belongs to them, why are they burning it?

 

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Bibi Netanyahu: “This is Why People Are Coming to Israel”

Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke today at the Jerusalem Post Diplomatic Conference held in Jerusalem today.  He touched on the changing world and how Israel is leading in technology and innovation. He spoke about the changing relationships with the Arab world and the broader globe.

Watch the whole speech below:

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